Rhode Island shows a steep increase in cases after social distancing, however this is largely due to a significant increase in testing in Rhode Island compared to national average. RI surged from a little above the national average of tests administered (2,388 for RI vs 2,922 for national average) to one of the highest number of tests per million (24,446 for RI vs. 9,877 for the national average). This increased testing is the right move, but it does complicate the standard state model based on confirmed cases. Therefore, I've included some additional analysis.
Examining hospitalizations and deaths, hospitalizations grew at 213% before Social Distancing to 60% weekly growth rate as of April 15. The rate continues to drop, and stands at 27% as of April 21. Deaths were at 733% as of April 5 (a week after the first death) to 149% as of April 15. It has continued to decline to 114% weekly growth as of April 21.
The goal should be to get below 20% weekly growth rate, ideally down into the lower single digits. It is important to keep in mind nearly every county in the US has COVID-19 infections. Infections can easily spread to any community in the state. In less than 90 days, the coronavirus grew from a single confirmed case in the US on January 21 to confirmed cases in every state and 85% of all counties (as of April 15th).
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|County||Population||Confirmed Cases As of Apr 15||Total Deaths as of Apr 15||Deaths, 7 Days (Apr 8 to 15)||Deaths, 7 Days, per 1,000,000||Cases per 1,000,000 people||Case Fatality Rate (CFR)||Weekly Growth in Cases (Apr 8 to 15)||Weekly Growth in Deaths (Apr 8 to 15)|