COVID-19: How Many Lives Saved In April?

State COVID-19 Chart


Maryland shows a steep increase in cases after social distancing, however this is largely due to a significant increase in testing in Maryland compared to national average. Maryland surged from a little above the national average of tests administered (2,436 for Maryland vs 2,922 for national average) to one of the highest number of tests per million (18,997 for Maryland vs. 9,877 for the national average). This increased testing is the right move, but it does complicate the standard state model based on confirmed cases. Therefore, I've included some additional analysis.

Examining hospitalizations and deaths, hospitalizations grew at a weekly rate of 341% before Social Distancing to 84% weekly growth rate as of April 15. The rate continues to drop, and stands at 49% as of April 21. Deaths were at 570% as of April 5 (a week after the first death) to 181% as of April 15. It has continued to decline to 93% weekly growth as of April 21.

The goal should be to get below 20% weekly growth rate, ideally down into the lower single digits. It is important to keep in mind nearly every county in the US has COVID-19 infections. Infections can easily spread to any community in the state. In less than 90 days, the coronavirus grew from a single confirmed case in the US on January 21 to confirmed cases in every state and 85% of all counties (as of April 15th).

COVID-19 Deaths In State

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County Population Confirmed Cases As of Apr 15 Total Deaths as of Apr 15 Deaths, 7 Days (Apr 8 to 15) Deaths, 7 Days, per 1,000,000 Cases per 1,000,000 people Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Weekly Growth in Cases (Apr 8 to 15) Weekly Growth in Deaths (Apr 8 to 15)

State By State Analysis

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