Alabama's efforts to #StayHome got a late start, but the effort is just starting to show progress, with projections to lives by the end of the month. However, now is not the time to relax social distancing. In the next week, in the state, COVID-19 is projected to kill more people than car accidents and the flu/pneumonia combined. The death rate increased 79% last week. Therefore, Alabama is at a high risk, currently.
Alabama is on the right trend in terms of social distancing, which is projected to lower the rate of virus spread. Alabama needs to continue to lower weekly growth rate in cases and deaths to below 20% per week. Based on an higher than average case fatality rate, the state is likely under-counting infections, possibly due to limited access to testing. In other words, there are likely more cases than reporting indicates.
While some counties appear less at risk, every county has COVID-19 infections. Infections can easily spread to any community in the state. In less than 90 days, the coronavirus grew from a single confirmed case in the US on January 21 to confirmed cases in every state and 85% of all counties (as of April 15th).
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|County||Population||Confirmed Cases As of Apr 15||Total Deaths as of Apr 15||Deaths, 7 Days (Apr 8 to 15)||Deaths, 7 Days, per 1,000,000||Cases per 1,000,000 people||Case Fatality Rate (CFR)||Weekly Growth in Cases (Apr 8 to 15)||Weekly Growth in Deaths (Apr 8 to 15)|